A recession doesn’t shrink deficits — it explodes them. Add rising long-term rates as foreign creditors quietly reassess their appetite for U.S. debt, and you have a compression of fiscal options at precisely the wrong moment. Geopolitical isolation doesn’t just wound pride — it reprices sovereign risk.
The market hasn’t fully absorbed this yet. That gap between perception and reality is where forecasters live.
The math is unforgiving.
A recession doesn’t shrink deficits — it explodes them. Add rising long-term rates as foreign creditors quietly reassess their appetite for U.S. debt, and you have a compression of fiscal options at precisely the wrong moment. Geopolitical isolation doesn’t just wound pride — it reprices sovereign risk.
The market hasn’t fully absorbed this yet. That gap between perception and reality is where forecasters live.
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